The few that remember Cradley as it was years ago, speak of the town with great affection. It was vibrant and friendly, with real local characters and a great community spirit. But the passing of the years has not been kind to Cradley. We have always been slightly further down the Council's ranking than would allow the town to prosper or even, more importantly, prevent further decay. The siting of 60's style high rise blocks in the town, the building of large social housing complexes and plans for road widening all blighted the area from one decade to another. There seems to have never been a real plan for Cradley and we have simply drifted along and suffered from decisions made within the council that clearly were not in Cradley's best long term interests.
After national recognition of their folly, the high rise buildings and large scale social housing complexes have all but gone. And the road, that beautiful houses were demolished to make way for, never actually came. But the legacy of damage remains and is compounded by the inaction of present day local councillors (Labour) who show no interest in creating or supporting regeneration of this town. We recognise that no councillor, of any persuasion, has the power to single-handedly fix decades of neglect. But the least that the electorate should expect of their councillor, is that they should try or failing that, not hamper the attempts of others. Our Labour councillors are confident their seats are safe and recent local elections show they indeed are. The present Labour incumbents have presided over the town's fate for more than 20 years and we feel now, going forward, the town would be better represented by servants who will work towards making this town what it once was, and fight to preserve what remains of this community and its spirit.
How can the Labour councillors ever be removed from what is a Labour stronghold? - To answer that question we need to understand why Cradley is a Labour stronghold, when anyone looking at social media and reading comments from local business and residents alike, will know Labour has quite modest support and very vocal opposition in the town. The answer comes down to three links in a chain, Mathematics, Apathy and Strategy. If we can break any link the incumbents will be unseated and Cradley will be free of their restraint.
Cradley is in the electoral ward called Cradley and Wollescote. The voting population is around 10,000, (split almost evenly between male and female). But only around 27% (2700) can be bothered to vote. Statistics show Labour can rely on circa 1400 votes, which guarantees them a win (as that level of support is more than 50% of this low turnout). So even if all other parties combined they would not unseat them. Putting that another way, 14% of the electorate in Cradley and Wollescote are dictating to 86% that they should have Labour councillors, they don't want.
Who are the 1400? Unfortunately, there are - on all sides - people who are blind to local issues and vote on party lines. Traditionally this was the older generation who had 'always' voted the same way and would continue to do so regardless. Speaking to older people it is hard to find a solid level of support for modern Labour. It is also suggested that postal votes may be high for Labour. We have tried to identify the volume of these via Freedom of Information requests. However, postal votes by law are mixed with the main ballot and therefore these statistics are not available to verify if this is fact.
It get's worse. The problem is further compounded by stubborn intransigence of very similar opposition parties. We are now faced with the possibility of as many as FOUR opposition parties facing Labour at the next local election. The effect of this is clearly shown in the statistics but no one wants to believe what they see. The unpalatable fact is the opposition simply share the remainder of the vote, they do not encroach on the Labour vote.
Let's consider what this actually means - the mathematics and apathy combined with the strategy of the opposition mean that just 705 Labour votes guarantee a Labour win every time! - And remember they have 1400 at their disposal. This is the source of the apathy where voters believe their vote will make no difference.
Could the opposition parties change their strategy for the sake of a Labour defeat? Who are the opposition? The Liberals gave up on the ward many years ago after fielding paper candidates (no canvassing) for years. The Greens have appeared since then and are following the same paper candidate path. The main opposition, Conservatives, and UKIP, have shared the same 'marketing' strategy, which basically is, 'field a candidate and leaflet the electorate in the month before a local election'. A new party has also recently emerged, The Black Country Party. BCP is a cross party organisation made up of ex-members of UKIP, Conservative, Labour and LibDems. They have yet to fight an election so we don't know their strategy. Regardless, having spoken to all these groups, what is clear is none will withdraw their candidate to allow the other a chance of attracting more of the floating vote. But even if they did, by itself as we have seen, this wouldn't actually be enough.
So, assuming Labour's core vote is solid, for a stab at victory, a rival candidate therefore requires in excess of 1400 votes. The nearest rivals in the last couple of local elections has been UKIP in 2016 with 685 votes and Conservatives in 2018 with 704 votes. There is one 'fallow' year in every four where no local elections are held, the last one being 2017. Interestingly enough, UKIP's vote fell to 487 in 2018 (minus-198 votes) on the back of disappointing results for the party nationally, while Conservatives gained from the 529 of 2016 (plus+175 votes). Labour lost 53 votes in the same period with 1425 votes in 2018. It's clear these statistics bear out the preceding text.
A first glance those statistics would appear to show a lost cause. However, a possible key to victory lies in the fact the area has a Conservative MP (Margot James), with a majority of 7654. The constituencies however are not the same demographic but I am told that results from canvassing indicate there are circa 2800 Cradley folk included in Margot James' 25706 votes.
Therefore, armed with this information, we can present what we believe to be the best chance of a rival candidate's success and we are attempting to facilitate this via lobbying. We are suggesting:
*Voting bloc :A union of electorate who are not tied to a party but are instead prepared to vote beyond party lines and in the best interests of the Town. Residents in a voting bloc of 700 would control the results of elections in Cradley and therefore be able to influence the political scene for the benefit of the town and its residents. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_bloc
Please note this is a private initiative and the creators of this page are not endorsed by, or representing the views of, any political party.If you are still reading and would like to help in this project..
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But whatever you decide to do - please use your vote!